Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f6e…bbd5 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate78%42W / 12L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$5
crypto 13% +$4
other 5% $0
tech 1% +$45
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +3.6% -6.2% 78% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 2% -8.9%
10% -15.2% 2% -17.6%
15% -23.4% 2% -25.6%
20% -30.9% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.23 per $1 lost it wins $8.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses42 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage536d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $24 +$45 +184%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 01 $50 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $38 +$1 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $1 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $4,813 −$5 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 04 $11 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Feb 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 12 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $76 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 62d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $64 63d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 91d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $66 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 122d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 151d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $54 151d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $14 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $61 183d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $17 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $49 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 100¢ $20 301d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $50 302d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $17 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 333d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $36 334d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $39 366d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $38 367d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 100¢ $17 423d
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? BUY No 100¢ $16 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.65 · official $79.65 (match) · 112 history records