Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f6d…bfc5 sports 1012 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-1%) realized −$407 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%473W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$68
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$578
other 15% +$94
crypto 0% −$14
finance 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 49% -4.8%
≤30d 82 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 49% -7.0%
≤90d 478 -4.7% -13.7% 48% 45% -18.5%
all 1010 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 44% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 44% -10.6%
10% -21.3% 41% -19.2%
15% -28.9% 38% -27.0%
20% -35.9% 31% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$26 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$407
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses473 / 537
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1010 / 1012
History coverage142d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1010 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $37 $48 +$11 (+31%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 59¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $25 −$12 -49%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 +$22 +59%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $39 −$39 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $61 +$26 +44%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $19 +$20 +105%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $30 −$15 -49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $23 +$28 +118%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $23 +$19 +80%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $49 +$10 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +28%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 +$30 +57%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) Jun 18 $12 +$8 +65%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $9 +$8 +93%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +116%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +89%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 +$33 +139%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$23 +92%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +47%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $18 +$12 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$25 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $17 +$11 +68%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $5 +$11 +220%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $3 +$7 +290%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Clement Tabur vs. Stefanos Sakellaridis: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $15 +$3 +22%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $37 +$6 +16%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $12 13m
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Guido Justo 26¢ $13 14m
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 49¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $28 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $39 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 3h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 69¢ $61 8h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $41 8h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 61¢ $25 9h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) SELL Noskova 100¢ $15 10h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) BUY Noskova 66¢ $10 11h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $40 11h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 48¢ $19 12h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Keys 50¢ $7 13h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Keys 59¢ $1 13h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Keys 59¢ $9 13h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $15 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 22h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $51 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 47¢ $15 23h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 45¢ $23 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 97¢ $42 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $26 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.50 · official $64.50 (match) · 2867 history records