Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f6c…752b other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$19
politics 25% −$11
sports 9% +$28
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage135d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $224 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $266 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $200 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $158 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $192 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $196 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 17 $454 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $293 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $253 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $285 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $242 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 12h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 23h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $200 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 26d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 26d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $224 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $224 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 29d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 30d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 30d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $196 31d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $196 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 376 history records