Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f6b…b245 sports 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$539 (+2%) realized +$551 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%181W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$903
7 days+$705
14 days+$586
30 days−$587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$645
other 18% −$342
crypto 1% −$138
finance 0% −$36
world 0% −$56
politics 0% −$69
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +17.4% +6.2% 39% 39% +4.1%
≤30d 271 -3.3% -12.5% 42% 41% -12.2%
≤90d 447 -4.1% -13.3% 40% 39% -9.4%
all 447 -4.1% -13.3% 40% 39% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 39% -9.4%
10% -21.6% 38% -18.1%
15% -29.1% 34% -26.0%
20% -36.1% 29% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$38 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$551
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses181 / 266
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions3
Markets (closed)447 / 451
History coverage44d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $41 +$148 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$93 +91%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $249 +$113 +45%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $55 +$22 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $24 +$26 +107%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $46 +$56 +123%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $102 +$120 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $67 −$26 -39%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$141 +279%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $126 +$550 +437%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $165 −$89 -54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$9 -18%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $51 −$37 -73%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$65 +129%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $46 −$45 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $51 −$3 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$15 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $69 +$109 +158%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $202 +$131 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $131 +$108 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 +$53 +344%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $128 −$11 -9%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $66 +$99 +149%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $28 +$38 +134%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $134 −$133 -99%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $36 −$3 -9%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $21 +$144 +703%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $36 +$68 +191%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $30 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $95 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $189 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $41 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $56 5h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 71¢ $52 5h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 72¢ $53 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $194 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 7h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 69¢ $148 7h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $101 7h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY LuneX Gaming 44¢ $51 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $77 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $55 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $51 11h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $102 11h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $46 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $24 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 98¢ $222 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 21¢ $41 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 34¢ $51 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $16 27h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 97¢ $191 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $676 27h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 25¢ $50 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.00 · official $95.00 (match) · 917 history records