Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f6a…1fe7 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 763d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$203 (-4%) realized −$198 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$430
14 days−$430
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$493
sports 28% −$227
other 18% +$296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -22.1% -29.5% 39% 36% -18.9%
≤30d 44 -22.1% -29.5% 39% 36% -18.9%
≤90d 44 -22.1% -29.5% 39% 36% -18.9%
all 49 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 37% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 37% -18.7%
10% -23.6% 37% -26.5%
15% -31.0% 33% -33.6%
20% -37.8% 24% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$58 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

763d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$198
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage763d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 48¢ $149 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $226 +$124 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $78 +$52 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $174 +$71 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $232 −$190 -82%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$16 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$25 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $92 −$87 -95%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$31 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $269 −$232 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $156 +$71 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $287 +$210 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $230 +$71 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $314 −$299 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $171 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$22 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $227 +$107 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $120 +$222 +184%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $180 −$97 -54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $163 −$3 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $117 +$103 +88%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 +$8 +16%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $34 −$22 -65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$1 -5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $98 +$106 +108%
Will Turkey win? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win? Jun 18 $4 $0 -3%
Ethereum above $3,800 on June 14? Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Will ETH hit $4k by Friday? May 30 $10 +$3 +34%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 29 $1 +$6 +614%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $152 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $14 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $165 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 46¢ $45 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $15 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $121 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $78 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $109 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 99¢ $120 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $29 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $7 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $100 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $54 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: France ( BUY 8¢ $57 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (- BUY 7¢ $115 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 35h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 7¢ $0 35h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 7¢ $42 35h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $232 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $65 38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $18 38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $5 38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2 38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $22 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.88 · official $200.26 · 237 history records