Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f68…8fb7 crypto 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$188 (+10%) realized +$193 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%74W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day150.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$34
sports 38% +$64
other 16% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 43% -2.6%
≤30d 154 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 43% -2.6%
≤90d 154 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 43% -2.6%
all 154 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 43% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 43% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -11.9%
15% -25.1% 38% -20.4%
20% -32.5% 32% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses74 / 80
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day150.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$31 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$11 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$85 +166%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $57 +$83 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$9 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +89%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 +$43 +139%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$93 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$11 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$20 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$16 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$40 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$14 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$18 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $41 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $8.30 · 451 history records