Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f66…91c6 politics 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 43L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$24
politics 18% $0
other 14% +$2
tech 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$2
weather 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 18 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 6% -7.1%
≤90d 18 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 6% -7.1%
all 70 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -8.2%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.0%
15% -25.7% 3% -25.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage321d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $18 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $79 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $58 +$6 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $52 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $94 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $43 +$16 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $53 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 21 $2 $0 -19%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 21 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $11 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 18 $2 $0 +8%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $55 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 21h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $55 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $17 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $38 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 87¢ $40 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $19 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $23 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.17 · official $55.44 (match) · 215 history records