Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9F
0x9f66…3a50
world · 375 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$19,827 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21,539 · open −$1,000
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27,793
Realized+$21,539
Unrealized−$1,000
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses224 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions51
Markets (closed)325 / 375
History coverage50d
Avg bet$790
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 51 History 325 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,163
7 days+$20
14 days+$5,008
30 days+$9,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 96¢ $3,162 $3,927 +$765 (+24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 78¢ 74¢ $4,061 $3,864 −$197 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $1,693 $1,850 +$156 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 29¢ $2,919 $1,778 −$1,142 (-39%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 67¢ 71¢ $1,399 $1,493 +$94 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 64¢ 64¢ $1,284 $1,290 +$6 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $1,175 $1,159 −$16 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $877 $872 −$5 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? No 79¢ 99¢ $663 $835 +$172 (+26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 77¢ 86¢ $607 $681 +$74 (+12%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 80¢ 90¢ $596 $676 +$80 (+13%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 62¢ 36¢ $1,180 $671 −$509 (-43%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 69¢ 78¢ $565 $638 +$73 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 18¢ $773 $600 −$174 (-22%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 67¢ 68¢ $577 $593 +$16 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 79¢ 98¢ $434 $540 +$106 (+24%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 67¢ $565 $524 −$41 (-7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 45¢ 57¢ $375 $478 +$103 (+28%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $494 $450 −$44 (-9%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 65¢ 55¢ $508 $429 −$79 (-16%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 69¢ $471 $427 −$44 (-9%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? No 65¢ 50¢ $467 $361 −$106 (-23%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 88¢ $221 $326 +$105 (+48%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $295 $311 +$16 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $663 −$190 -29%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $1,108 −$220 -20%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $500 +$22 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6,486 −$1,443 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $666 −$265 -40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $838 +$41 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $922 +$29 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $2,562 +$347 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $883 +$23 +3%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 13 $183 −$3 -2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $500 −$279 -56%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $900 −$322 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $1,558 +$137 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $1,189 −$442 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $140 −$43 -30%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 12 $83 +$4 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $567 +$43 +8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $719 −$387 -54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $477 +$142 +30%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3,366 +$174 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $800 +$77 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2,024 +$254 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $299 −$107 -36%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 11 $78 −$50 -64%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 11 $181 −$113 -62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $1,966 +$211 +11%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $767 +$171 +22%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $838 +$26 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $400 +$85 +21%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $906 −$12 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,680 +$52 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $3,277 +$176 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,775 +$231 +13%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $1,115 +$99 +9%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 10 $200 +$11 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $978 −$228 -23%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $3,519 +$206 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,050 +$119 +11%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $556 +$42 +8%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $705 +$146 +21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 09 $187 −$77 -41%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $49 −$4 -8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $321 +$44 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$18 +89%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $120 +$33 +27%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $436 +$25 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $102 +$60 +59%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $333 −$195 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% +$20,635
other 8% +$951
finance 4% −$357
politics 4% −$1,428
sports 2% +$417
tech 2% +$511
crypto 1% −$212
culture 1% +$234
economics 0% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $10 3m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 93¢ $300 7m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 7m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $50 8m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 47¢ $246 8m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $100 8m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $100 8m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 8m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $200 17m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $240 18m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $77 19m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $77 19m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 20m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $77 20m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 20m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $406 21m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $100 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $28 51m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 71¢ $37 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 69¢ $600 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 64¢ $100 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $113 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $100 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $200 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 64¢ $40 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $77 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $77 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 64¢ $400 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $49 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -6.2% -15.1% 61% 24% -9.5%
≤30d 236 -4.8% -13.9% 68% 31% -5.2%
≤90d 325 +13.7% +2.9% 69% 36% -1.7%
all 325 +13.7% +2.9% 69% 36% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 36% -1.7%
10% -6.9% 16% -11.1%
15% ← realistic here -15.9% 9% -19.7%
20% -24.2% 7% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,792.70 · official $27,792.83 (match) · 3500 history records