Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

9F 0x9f63…5aa4 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-19.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-11.2%	-19.7%	67%	67%	-18.1%
≤30d	3	-11.2%	-19.7%	67%	67%	-18.1%
≤90d	3	-11.2%	-19.7%	67%	67%	-18.1%
all	3	-11.2%	-19.7%	67%	67%	-18.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.7%	67%	-18.1%
10%	-27.4%	33%	-25.9%
15%	-34.4%	33%	-33.1%
20%	-40.8%	33%	-39.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$48 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	87¢	86¢	$49	$49	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$49	−$48	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$27	+$4	+14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$61	+$31	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$49	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	53¢	$49	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	82¢	$29	3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$27	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$32	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.60 · official $48.60 (match) · 7 history records