Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9F
0x9f61…6a55
world · 196 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$240 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$231 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$905
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses110 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)189 / 196
History coverage93d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 7 History 189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$8
14 days+$71
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $584 $597 +$13 (+2%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $287 $284 −$2 (-1%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-75%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 34¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+61%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $81 −$12 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 13 $1,491 +$26 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $101 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $404 +$4 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $303 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $47 +$3 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $9 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $46 −$6 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $754 +$50 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 02 $180 $0 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $204 +$2 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $213 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $79 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $97 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $19 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 31 $11 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $98 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $149 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $232 +$5 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $2 $0 -1%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 27 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $108 +$10 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $125 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $408 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $171 +$2 +1%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 24 $72 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $117 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $47 −$5 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $18 −$6 -32%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 16 $3 $0 -12%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 16 $30 −$2 -7%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -20%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 15 $47 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$98
other 15% +$10
crypto 4% +$48
tech 4% +$3
politics 2% +$58
finance 2% +$5
sports 2% +$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 96¢ $15 16m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 96¢ $28 16m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 95¢ $14 16m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 96¢ $10 18m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 95¢ $14 18m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 98¢ $7 19m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 95¢ $28 20m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 96¢ $19 21m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 97¢ $46 22m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 97¢ $2 23m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 98¢ $23 29m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 94¢ $19 40m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 93¢ $28 43m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 97¢ $17 43m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 96¢ $25 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 62¢ $24 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 88¢ $212 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $60 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 76¢ $11 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 72¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 70¢ $58 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 16¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $66 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.2% -14.2% 31% 6% -9.2%
≤30d 51 -2.1% -11.5% 51% 4% -8.4%
≤90d 184 +4.9% -5.1% 59% 7% -8.3%
all 189 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 7% -8.3%
10% -15.0% 4% -17.1%
15% -23.2% 3% -25.1%
20% -30.7% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.80 · official $904.80 (match) · 1434 history records