Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9F 0x9f56…5a82 weather 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%100W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 34% +$8
sports 27% +$4
other 15% −$16
world 10% +$3
culture 5% +$1
tech 5% +$1
politics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 25 +1.6% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 101 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses100 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage156d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $27 +$1 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $32 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's video get between 81 and 82 million views on day 6? Apr 27 $35 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's video get between 77 and 78 million views on day 5? Apr 23 $15 $0 +3%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 80-84 seats in the 2026 Bul Apr 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 13 $24 $0 +1%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? Apr 10 $16 $0 +2%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 US Ne Apr 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the US lose more than 150k jobs in March? Apr 06 $23 $0 +1%
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $23 $0 +2%
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? Mar 29 $18 +$1 +3%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? Mar 27 $19 +$1 +3%
Will less than 8000 US flights be delayed on March 25? Mar 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90 Mar 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 47 million views on day 2 Mar 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 19? Mar 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 17? Mar 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 20 Mar 22 $23 $0 +1%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 19? Mar 19 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 19? Mar 19 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on March 18 Mar 18 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 17? Mar 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters while pitching at Mar 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 16? Mar 16 $20 $0 +2%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 13 $23 $0 +1%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $20 $0 +2%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mar 09 $20 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Mar 07 $20 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 06 $20 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Celtics Mar 05 $20 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 05 $20 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Kings Mar 05 $20 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 02 $20 $0 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Pacers Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Hawks Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Pacers Feb 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on February Feb 21 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 99¢ $16 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 97¢ $16 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 98¢ $18 16d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY Yes 97¢ $27 25d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $32 52d
Will MrBeast's video get between 81 and 82 million views on day 6? BUY No 99¢ $35 56d
Will MrBeast's video get between 77 and 78 million views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $15 56d
Will MrBeast's video get between 77 and 78 million views on day 5? BUY No 97¢ $15 57d
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 80-84 seats in the 2026 Bul SELL No 100¢ $18 60d
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 80-84 seats in the 2026 Bul BUY No 98¢ $18 61d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less tha SELL Yes 99¢ $25 66d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less tha BUY Yes 98¢ $24 66d
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? SELL No 99¢ $16 69d
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? BUY No 97¢ $16 70d
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 US Ne SELL Yes 100¢ $21 72d
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 US Ne BUY Yes 97¢ $20 73d
Will the US lose more than 150k jobs in March? BUY No 99¢ $23 77d
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $14 78d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $24 79d
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $17 80d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $23 80d
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $14 80d
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 80d
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 81d
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? BUY Yes 97¢ $18 82d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 205 history records