Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f56…5cd2 finance 7 markets active 137d ago coverage 1d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (3337 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$532 (-0%) realized −$532 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +571% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +366% what you keep after slip
Net edge+366%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28,968per market
Trades / day3336.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 50% −$781
finance 42% +$11
politics 6% +$117
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+507.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +570.9% +507.0% 43% 29% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3336.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +507.0% 29% -10.3%
10% +448.9% 29% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here +395.9% 29% -26.7%
20% +347.3% 29% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +571% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
241.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$270 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$532
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$28,968
Trades / day3336.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robinhood say "Billion" 10+ times during earnings call? Feb 11 $7,409 +$97 +1%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the Fighting Oliga Feb 11 $3,150 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que Feb 10 $12,469 +$117 +1%
Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 10 $17,348 −$41 -0%
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤2.1%? Feb 10 $22,366 −$994 -4%
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.4%? Feb 10 $79,257 +$214 +0%
Will Robinhood say "Summit" during earnings call? Feb 10 $60,777 −$44 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 16¢ $4 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY Yes 84¢ $206 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 16¢ $80 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY Yes 84¢ $71 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY Yes 84¢ $83 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY Yes 84¢ $64 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 15¢ $11 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 16¢ $14 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 15¢ $15 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL No 16¢ $9 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL No 16¢ $17 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL No 16¢ $16 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL Yes 85¢ $91 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL Yes 84¢ $46 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL Yes 85¢ $83 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 15¢ $19 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 16¢ $7 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 15¢ $14 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL Yes 84¢ $71 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL Yes 84¢ $25 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL Yes 84¢ $77 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL Yes 86¢ $34 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL No 16¢ $11 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL No 16¢ $18 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que SELL No 15¢ $14 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 15¢ $10 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 15¢ $20 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY No 15¢ $11 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY Yes 85¢ $58 137d
Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Que BUY Yes 84¢ $113 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records