Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f55…3281 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$127 (+8%) realized +$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$79
sports 37% +$283
crypto 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.2% +2.4% 45% 36% +3.3%
≤30d 11 +13.2% +2.4% 45% 36% +3.3%
≤90d 11 +13.2% +2.4% 45% 36% +3.3%
all 11 +13.2% +2.4% 45% 36% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 36% +3.3%
10% -7.4% 36% -6.6%
15% -16.3% 18% -15.6%
20% -24.5% 18% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$14 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $366 −$21 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026 Jun 18 $273 +$79 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $279 −$6 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-0 Jun 17 $220 +$54 +25%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $143 −$36 -25%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $110 +$6 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $90 +$149 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records