Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f54…6044 other 89 markets active 14h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+10%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%29W / 59L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$4
sports 11% +$8
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +6.4% -3.7% 30% 28% -1.4%
≤30d 69 +5.7% -4.3% 32% 30% -1.5%
≤90d 88 +5.6% -4.5% 33% 31% -1.3%
all 88 +5.6% -4.5% 33% 31% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 31% -1.3%
10% -13.6% 31% -10.7%
15% -22.0% 31% -19.4%
20% -29.6% 28% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage38d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +146%
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +39%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +249%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$5 +473%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +275%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +357%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +642%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 30h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $1 32h
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 32h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 33h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $6 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 33h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 35h
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 35h
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 36h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 45h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.14 · official $1.14 (match) · 132 history records