Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f4f…f788 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%43W / 59L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$28
other 34% −$5
politics 12% −$13
sports 10% +$4
finance 2% +$22
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.4% -11.7% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 +0.2% -9.4% 37% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 41 +0.2% -9.3% 39% 5% -9.3%
all 102 +1.9% -7.8% 42% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 5% -9.2%
10% -16.7% 2% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses43 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage476d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $192 $192 +$1 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $192 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $192 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $193 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $194 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $86 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $173 +$2 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $131 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $235 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $150 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $189 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $353 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $22 −$1 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $163 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $190 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $146 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $173 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $181 +$6 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $16 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $167 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $71 +$16 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $172 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $633 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $168 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $113 −$10 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $179 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $176 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $189 +$23 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 16 $1,046 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $288 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,062 −$17 -2%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $1,098 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $1,165 +$2 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $850 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 25 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $22 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 24 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $192 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $65 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $65 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $99 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $63 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $174 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $192 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $192 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $192 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $192 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $193 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $61 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $132 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $193 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $193 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.46 · official $192.46 (match) · 360 history records