Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f4a…5ff8 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized +$2 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate66%37W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$1
other 7% −$2
world 4% −$2
sports 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +11.0% +0.4% 66% 59% -2.5%
≤30d 56 +11.0% +0.4% 66% 59% -2.5%
≤90d 56 +11.0% +0.4% 66% 59% -2.5%
all 56 +11.0% +0.4% 66% 59% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 59% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 48% -11.8%
15% -18.0% 41% -20.4%
20% -26.0% 29% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses37 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 62
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? No 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $1.41 (match) · 127 history records