Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9F 0x9f4a…1ae0 crypto 763 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,061 (-1%) realized −$1,061 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%397W / 452L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$602
other 2% −$741
sports 1% −$1,114
tech 1% +$7
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -80.6% -82.4% 14% 7% -54.2%
≤30d 119 -79.9% -81.8% 13% 7% -53.7%
≤90d 211 -66.0% -69.2% 29% 4% -21.2%
all 849 -31.4% -37.9% 47% 4% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 4% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -43.9% 3% -19.9%
15% -49.3% 3% -27.6%
20% -54.3% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$1,061
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses397 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)849 / 763
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 849 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $154 $154 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 423 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 6? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 25? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 1? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 7? Jun 21 $71 −$84 -119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 6? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 4? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 8? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 1? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 28? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 7? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 8? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 15? Jun 21 $6 −$34 -551%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 2? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 12 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 8? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 3? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 16 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 1? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 16? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 1? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 4? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 7? Jun 21 $58 −$14 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 20? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 17 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 19 Jun 21 $192 −$200 -104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 13? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 6? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 1? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 10 Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 29? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 16 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 16 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 31? Jun 21 $331 −$300 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 17? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 16? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 13 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 5? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.15 · official $194.15 (match) · 3500 history records