Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f48…0e01 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$88 (-6%) realized −$87 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$0
14 days−$15
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$109
sports 32% +$10
crypto 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +52.8% +38.3% 19% 19% -6.2%
≤30d 34 +30.8% +18.4% 21% 21% -10.4%
≤90d 59 +19.1% +7.7% 22% 22% -15.2%
all 59 +19.1% +7.7% 22% 22% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 22% -15.2%
10% -2.6% 22% -23.3%
15% -12.0% 20% -30.7%
20% -20.6% 19% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$20 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 46
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage63d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$17 -90%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $9 +$91 +982%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$6 -12%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $17 −$15 -88%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +119%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 +$66 +356%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $37 −$29 -78%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$99 +1923%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $43 +$31 +72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $32 −$3 -10%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -96%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) May 02 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5) May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $39 −$26 -66%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $36 +$67 +188%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $124 −$122 -98%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Apr 28 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 28 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Apr 26 $24 +$77 +321%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5) Apr 26 $12 +$92 +763%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Apr 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $21 −$19 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $19 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 16h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 37h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 12¢ $13 37h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $16 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 40h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 2¢ $2 40h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 15¢ $17 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 41h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $84 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.48 · official $24.48 (match) · 129 history records