Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f47…4e99 crypto 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-10%) realized −$39 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%24W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$55
crypto 32% −$102
other 23% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.6% +2.8% 36% 31% -2.5%
≤30d 91 -15.3% -23.3% 26% 24% -22.8%
≤90d 91 -15.3% -23.3% 26% 24% -22.8%
all 91 -15.3% -23.3% 26% 24% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 24% -22.8%
10% -30.7% 21% -30.2%
15% -37.4% 21% -36.9%
20% -43.5% 18% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses24 / 67
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)91 / 98
History coverage23d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 22¢ 46¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+111%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -67%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$23 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$37 +240%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +338%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$18 +297%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -75%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 26 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 17m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 29h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $53 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.68 · official $52.68 (match) · 216 history records