Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f45…f101 sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,417 (-23%) realized −$1,430 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%64W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$81
14 days+$25
30 days+$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,181
other 48% −$286
crypto 1% +$4
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -6.0% -14.9% 54% 52% -16.8%
≤30d 120 -2.0% -11.4% 52% 52% +8.5%
≤90d 124 -5.2% -14.2% 51% 50% -11.5%
all 129 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 49% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 49% -32.1%
10% -23.5% 43% -38.6%
15% -30.9% 38% -44.6%
20% -37.6% 30% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$52 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$1,430
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses64 / 65
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)129 / 134
History coverage589d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $71 $87 +$16 (+22%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $70 $83 +$13 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $75 $61 −$14 (-19%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$7 +32%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$5 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $26 −$20 -78%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 +$6 +18%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +145%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +123%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 +$30 +197%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$22 +27%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $180 +$21 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $20 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 24h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 5¢ $5 25h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $26 25h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 26h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $10 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 44h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 44h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 44h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 44h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 44h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 44h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.26 · official $249.26 (match) · 280 history records