Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f43…1276 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2 (+15%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% $0
crypto 39% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +52.6% +38.1% 100% 100% +38.3%
≤30d 5 +39.5% +26.3% 80% 80% +27.4%
≤90d 5 +39.5% +26.3% 80% 80% +27.4%
all 5 +39.5% +26.3% 80% 80% +27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 80% +27.4%
10% +14.2% 60% +15.2%
15% +3.1% 60% +4.1%
20% -7.0% 60% -6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.77 · official $5.77 (match) · 14 history records