Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f42…1f72 sports 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,124 (+5%) realized +$1,394 · open −$270
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%147W / 79L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$607
14 days+$684
30 days−$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$850
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +5.7% -4.3% 69% 69% +1.5%
≤30d 71 -2.9% -12.1% 63% 62% -14.6%
≤90d 226 -0.6% -10.0% 65% 63% -5.1%
all 226 -0.6% -10.0% 65% 63% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 63% -5.1%
10% -18.7% 61% -14.2%
15% -26.5% 46% -22.5%
20% -33.7% 30% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$85 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,394
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses147 / 79
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions1
Markets (closed)226 / 227
History coverage61d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 68¢ 0¢ $271 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $202 +$67 +33%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $144 +$61 +42%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $496 +$343 +69%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $197 −$195 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $145 −$143 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $330 +$213 +64%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $241 +$81 +34%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $253 −$253 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $204 +$51 +25%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $105 −$104 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $78 +$32 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $91 +$29 +31%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $91 +$59 +64%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $106 +$54 +51%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $56 +$54 +97%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $134 +$75 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $104 +$46 +44%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $163 +$80 +49%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $104 +$26 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $156 +$84 +54%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 19 $71 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $62 +$38 +61%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $179 +$45 +25%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $197 +$75 +38%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $522 +$327 +63%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $166 −$165 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $89 +$55 +62%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $131 +$76 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $91 +$39 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$102 -99%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $148 +$42 +28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $129 +$22 +17%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $101 +$49 +49%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $65 +$15 +23%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $122 +$38 +31%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $101 +$48 +48%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $164 +$109 +66%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $469 −$468 -100%
LoL: Uwinks vs New Meta (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 03 $496 −$496 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Uwinks vs New Meta - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $109 −$109 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $223 −$223 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $55 +$104 +188%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $56 +$48 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 68¢ $273 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 100¢ $270 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 75¢ $8 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 75¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 75¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 75¢ $188 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $205 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 70¢ $31 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 70¢ $65 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 70¢ $48 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $839 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $4 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $6 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $22 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $99 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $152 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $11 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $12 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $190 18h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $61 19h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $10 19h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $4 19h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $122 19h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $145 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $543 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $330 44h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $322 44h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 74¢ $241 44h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 54¢ $18 47h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 54¢ $117 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 632 history records