trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -10.5% | -19.0% | 62% | 50% | -17.3% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -17.2% | -25.1% | 62% | 31% | -21.2% |
| all | 16 | -17.2% | -25.1% | 62% | 31% | -21.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.1% | 31% | -21.2% |
| 10% | -32.2% | 25% | -28.7% |
| 15% | -38.8% | 12% | -35.6% |
| 20% | -44.8% | 12% | -41.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic | 71¢ | 70¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 94¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+14%) |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-14%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 48¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | No | 78¢ | 70¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-75%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-50%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 1¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? | Jun 06 | $1 | +$1 | +133% |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 06 | $3 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +34% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +16% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | May 15 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? | May 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 12 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 12 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | May 12 | $1 | +$1 | +97% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 12 | $10 | $0 | +0% |