Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f3e…2377 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$133 (+15%) realized +$2 · open +$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$80
14 days+$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$6
crypto 27% +$100
sports 6% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.4% -5.5% 78% 56% +7.3%
≤30d 18 -18.0% -25.8% 61% 50% -10.0%
≤90d 18 -18.0% -25.8% 61% 50% -10.0%
all 18 -18.0% -25.8% 61% 50% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 50% -10.0%
10% -32.9% 33% -18.6%
15% -39.4% 28% -26.5%
20% -45.3% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage19d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 52¢ 95¢ $148 $273 +$125 (+85%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 28¢ 31¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $79 +$7 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $112 +$19 +17%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $46 +$26 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 +$8 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 +$31 +92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$4 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $66 +$21 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $28 −$26 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$7 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $37 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $14 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 69¢ $17 30h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $46 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 6¢ $3 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $6 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $8 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 52¢ $9 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.50 · official $342.50 (match) · 72 history records