Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f3d…d65d crypto 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,772 (-24%) realized −$4,772 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%42W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$950
7 days−$1,015
14 days−$1,286
30 days−$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$3,331
other 38% +$198
sports 18% −$396
weather 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -19.0% -26.8% 28% 27% -17.3%
≤30d 103 -20.5% -28.1% 30% 29% -18.9%
≤90d 173 -43.0% -48.5% 22% 21% -42.4%
all 181 -23.8% -31.0% 23% 22% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 22% -35.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.6% 19% -41.9%
15% -43.7% 17% -47.5%
20% -49.2% 14% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$96 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,772
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses42 / 139
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$110
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $72 −$36 -50%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $250 −$198 -79%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $273 +$402 +147%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $192 −$57 -30%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $376 −$335 -89%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $406 +$194 +48%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $209 +$187 +89%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $71 −$38 -54%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $123 +$169 +137%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $133 +$369 +277%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$3 +7%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $198 +$220 +111%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $720 −$720 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $147 −$145 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $98 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $128 −$125 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $213 −$200 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $288 +$511 +178%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $400 +$599 +150%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $239 −$238 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $133 −$130 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $188 −$186 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $197 −$192 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $168 +$74 +44%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $160 −$102 -64%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $140 −$140 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $146 −$146 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $114 −$114 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $251 −$251 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $434 −$434 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $208 +$963 +463%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $130 +$167 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 6¢ $36 37m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $52 37m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 75¢ $100 38m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 75¢ $26 38m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 75¢ $361 38m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 75¢ $188 38m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 47¢ $95 49m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 25¢ $250 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $112 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $120 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $127 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $41 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $251 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $271 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $125 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $135 10h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $396 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $209 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records