Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9f3d…d825 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+6%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$5
other 27% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.9% -15.7% 60% 50% -5.0%
≤30d 10 -6.9% -15.7% 60% 50% -5.0%
≤90d 10 -6.9% -15.7% 60% 50% -5.0%
all 10 -6.9% -15.7% 60% 50% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 50% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 20% -14.1%
15% -31.2% 20% -22.4%
20% -37.9% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $77 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$8 +43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $19 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.09 · official $35.09 (match) · 29 history records