Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f3a…3b17 other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$405 (+6%) realized +$413 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$88
14 days−$25
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$380
tech 31% +$39
crypto 11% −$242
politics 4% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.8% -56.4% 0% 0% -91.0%
≤30d 14 -32.4% -38.9% 36% 29% -12.9%
≤90d 51 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 33% -4.9%
all 53 -15.1% -23.2% 40% 32% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 32% -6.2%
10% -30.5% 25% -15.1%
15% -37.2% 15% -23.3%
20% -43.4% 15% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$31 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized+$413
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage94d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 72¢ 71¢ $499 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $94 −$88 -93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $52 +$17 +33%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $80 +$20 +24%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $638 −$229 -36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $850 +$268 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $396 +$14 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $85 +$15 +18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 10 $46 −$45 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $258 −$18 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 30 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? May 23 $37 +$53 +146%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of May 18 2026? May 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 18 2026? May 20 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Norway be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $187 +$25 +13%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $924 +$276 +30%
Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $832 +$190 +23%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of May 11 2026? May 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Luxembourg be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day May 14 $417 +$76 +18%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day? May 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 Week of May 11 2026? May 12 $45 +$26 +58%
Will Solana reach $110 May 11-17? May 12 $7 −$5 -69%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 07 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of May 4 2026? May 05 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10? May 05 $14 −$7 -53%
Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 22 $31 +$49 +158%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? Apr 22 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 22 $22 −$20 -94%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 21 $37 −$27 -74%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 20-26? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Luxembourg be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26? Apr 20 $6 −$2 -35%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 13-19? Apr 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third Apr 20 $10 +$32 +316%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament Apr 20 $10 +$30 +299%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $11 +$31 +277%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 14 $35 +$48 +140%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,650 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 14 $138 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? Apr 09 $39 −$36 -93%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 07 $60 +$56 +94%
Will Solana reach $90 April 6-12? Apr 07 $68 −$40 -59%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 06 $69 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $32 16m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $112 17m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $112 17m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $82 26m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $82 26m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $82 26m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $43 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $44 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 53¢ $69 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $35 13d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $5 14d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 68¢ $141 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $79 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 14d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $40 14d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 68¢ $141 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 96¢ $198 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $79 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.92 · official $500.47 · 194 history records