Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f39…a17b crypto 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%44W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$86
other 6% +$124
sports 3% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +39.4% +26.1% 42% 42% +5.7%
≤30d 43 -9.5% -18.1% 30% 30% -2.6%
≤90d 112 -13.8% -22.0% 34% 34% -5.6%
all 122 -13.4% -21.6% 36% 35% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 35% -6.5%
10% -29.1% 33% -15.5%
15% -36.0% 29% -23.7%
20% -42.2% 25% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses44 / 78
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $18 $33 +$15 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$52 +497%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$8 -22%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 24 $24 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 24 $14 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 24 $7 +$7 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 24 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 24 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 24 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 24 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 24 $11 +$27 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 24 $11 +$21 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 24 $30 +$55 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 24 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 07 $31 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 07 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 12m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $15 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.35 · official $33.35 (match) · 360 history records