Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f31…d7e8 crypto 11 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-51%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$28
other 26% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -44.9% -50.1% 36% 27% -58.7%
≤30d 11 -44.9% -50.1% 36% 27% -58.7%
≤90d 11 -44.9% -50.1% 36% 27% -58.7%
all 11 -44.9% -50.1% 36% 27% -58.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 27% -58.7%
10% -54.9% 27% -62.6%
15% -59.2% 9% -66.3%
20% -63.2% 9% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records