Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f30…bb5a politics 332 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$157 (+1%) realized +$189 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate97%312W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% +$20
crypto 7% +$33
other 6% +$59
world 4% +$6
finance 4% −$20
tech 2% +$11
sports 2% +$19
economics 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 30 +1.0% -8.6% 90% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 184 +3.1% -6.8% 98% 4% -8.1%
all 322 +3.3% -6.5% 97% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 11% -9.0%
10% -15.5% 5% -17.7%
15% -23.7% 2% -25.6%
20% -31.1% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$47 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$189
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses312 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)322 / 332
History coverage160d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during June 24 Rally? No 99¢ 100¢ $119 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during June 24 Rally? No 99¢ 98¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? No 100¢ 83¢ $94 $78 −$16 (-17%)
Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? No 98¢ 90¢ $66 $60 −$6 (-9%)
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Secret Service" during June 24 Rally? No 99¢ 76¢ $54 $42 −$13 (-23%)
Will Trump say "MAGA" during June 24 Rally? No 99¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Eiffel" during June 24 Rally? No 97¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump say "SAVE Act" or "Save America Act" during June 24 Rally? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Weightlifter" or "Weightlifting" during June 24 Rally? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 Jun 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "MAHA" or "Make America Healthy Again" during June 24 R Jun 25 $210 +$5 +2%
Will Trump say "Arch" or "Ballroom" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Third term" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $276 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "JD" or "Vance" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $374 +$6 +2%
Will Trump say "Russia" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $274 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Alaska" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events? Jun 24 $454 +$11 +2%
Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" this week? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" this week? Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Obama / Biden" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $126 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? Jun 23 $301 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Manufacturing" this week? Jun 23 $225 +$7 +3%
Will Trump say "Dumb" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Oil / Gas" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $377 +$14 +4%
Will Trump say "Truck" this week? Jun 23 $189 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Rally" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $220 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Iowa" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $135 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Drug" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Healthcare Affordability Events May 19 $176 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Xi" this week? May 19 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Healthcare Affordability Events? May 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "London" during Healthcare Affordability Events? May 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during Healthcare Affordability Events May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Autism" during Healthcare Affordability Events? May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Great guy" or "Great person" during Healthcare Afforda May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Percent" 15+ times during Healthcare Affordability Eve May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "China" this week? May 19 $217 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during events with the 2026 National Fo May 12 $36 +$3 +9%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during events with the 2026 National Footba May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events with the 2026 National F May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Biden" during events with the 2026 National Football C May 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during events with the 2026 Nat May 12 $49 +$6 +12%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 6+ times during events with the May 12 $517 +$17 +3%
Will Trump say "UFC" during events with the 2026 National Football Cha May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Radical" or "Left" during events with the 2026 Nationa May 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Football" 8+ times during events with the 2026 Nationa May 11 $205 +$5 +2%
Will Trump say "Judge" or "Court" during events with the 2026 National May 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Fantastic" or "Incredible" or "Tremendous" 8+ times du May 11 $59 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 99¢ $66 16m
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $15 48m
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $20 48m
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $20 48m
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $25 48m
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $20 50m
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 SELL No 100¢ $58 56m
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 SELL No 100¢ $20 56m
Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $20 57m
Will Trump say "MAHA" or "Make America Healthy Again" during June 24 R SELL Yes 100¢ $15 58m
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $21 58m
Will Trump say "Arch" or "Ballroom" during June 24 Rally? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Trump say "Arch" or "Ballroom" during June 24 Rally? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will Trump say "Third term" during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Trump say "Third term" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Trump say "MAHA" or "Make America Healthy Again" during June 24 R SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during June 24 Rally? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during June 24 Rally? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? BUY No 100¢ $193 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during June 24 Rally? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.84 · official $531.84 (match) · 1280 history records