Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f2f…b3a9 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+7%) realized +$51 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$87
other 41% +$88
culture 18% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +131.3% +109.3% 100% 100% +109.3%
≤30d 12 +12.8% +2.1% 33% 33% +3.5%
≤90d 24 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 38% -12.7%
all 33 +8.5% -1.8% 45% 42% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 42% -3.0%
10% -11.2% 42% -12.3%
15% -19.8% 42% -20.7%
20% -27.7% 39% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$18 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage584d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+49%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+102%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 38¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+75%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 +$27 +131%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 +$29 +568%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -81%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $27 −$1 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $20 +$19 +94%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$18 +173%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $57 −$55 -96%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $52 +$33 +64%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $180 −$55 -31%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 22 $170 −$82 -48%
Will Noah Wyle win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Seri Sep 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Will The Pitt win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series? Sep 15 $100 +$83 +83%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? Sep 14 $50 +$36 +72%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-05? May 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? Dec 01 $50 +$56 +112%
Will Liverpool beat Real Madrid? Nov 27 $25 +$22 +88%
Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? Nov 23 $20 +$35 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $17 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13d
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 14d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $10 14d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $10 14d
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ assists SELL Yes 96¢ $34 15d
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $5 15d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 15d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 17d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 17¢ $1 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 28¢ $1 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 29¢ $1 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 29¢ $1 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 11¢ $1 22d
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 50¢ $26 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $7 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $10 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $10 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 12¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.83 · official $85.81 (match) · 143 history records