Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f2f…96ae other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$764 (+9%) realized +$716 · open +$48
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days+$1,032
14 days+$1,032
30 days+$879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,459
other 35% −$649
politics 9% +$78
world 5% −$217
crypto 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.9% +7.6% 25% 25% +80.1%
≤30d 7 +5.5% -4.5% 29% 29% +29.6%
≤90d 19 -34.6% -40.8% 21% 21% +10.0%
all 28 -21.7% -29.2% 25% 25% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 25% +0.9%
10% -36.0% 25% -8.8%
15% -42.2% 18% -17.6%
20% -47.8% 14% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$355 vs −$88 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$3,116
Realized+$716
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions16
Markets (closed)28 / 44
History coverage159d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $400 $459 +$59 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $299 $316 +$16 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $199 $280 +$81 (+41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $262 $273 +$11 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $301 $234 −$68 (-22%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $199 $172 −$27 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $149 $165 +$15 (+10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $209 $160 −$49 (-24%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $112 +$13 (+13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $99 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $29 −$20 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $454 +$1,470 +324%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $289 −$140 -48%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $672 −$272 -40%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $216 +$223 +103%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 06 $116 −$6 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $275 −$5 -2%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? May 05 $1,777 +$516 +29%
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league? May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 27 $74 +$27 +36%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $116 −$116 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 08 $74 −$40 -54%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? Apr 08 $42 −$42 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $94 +$26 +28%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $17 −$17 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$74 +372%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 08 $31 −$10 -33%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 08 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 02 $80 +$146 +183%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $311 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 5d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $204 6d
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 6d
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 22¢ $154 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 25¢ $31 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $148 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $276 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 53¢ $52 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 53¢ $52 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $142 14d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 30¢ $10 14d
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $103 14d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $206 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $417 17d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 37¢ $52 17d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $15 18d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 18d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 26¢ $41 18d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 41¢ $69 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 25¢ $53 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,115.91 · official $3,115.91 (match) · 182 history records