Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9F 0x9f2c…d0df sports 1759 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$391 (-2%) realized −$403 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%1116W / 638L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$158
14 days−$188
30 days−$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$541
crypto 25% −$20
other 10% −$175
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 -7.0% -15.8% 65% 61% -17.3%
≤30d 1136 -3.3% -12.5% 66% 62% -11.8%
≤90d 1754 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 60% -12.7%
all 1754 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 60% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 60% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 49% -21.1%
15% -29.5% 36% -28.7%
20% -36.4% 23% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$403
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1116 / 638
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1754 / 1759
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1754 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 62¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Game Master 74¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 78¢ 96¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 59¢ 67¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 73¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Abidjan 2: Michael Geerts vs Niels Visker Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Rainbow Six Siege: Arcade Esports vs Rival Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs MURASH GAMING (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group S Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 59¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 78¢ $10 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif SELL Man eSports LFO 100¢ $19 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif BUY Man eSports LFO 53¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 74¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 73¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 71¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 79¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 59¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 51¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $10 13h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 65¢ $5 13h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $15 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 16h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $13 16h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $17 16h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY summer bear 82¢ $15 20h
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY EAC Rising 70¢ $10 20h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $17 20h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 84¢ $3 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $17 22h
Rainbow Six Siege: Arcade Esports vs Rival Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi BUY Rival Esports 73¢ $10 26h
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs MURASH GAMING (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group S BUY MURASH GAMING 73¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.76 · official $116.76 (match) · 3500 history records