Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f2b…cced sports 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$503 (-15%) realized −$500 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$55
14 days−$448
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$299
other 40% −$57
crypto 2% −$69
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 40% -11.2%
≤30d 81 -33.9% -40.2% 35% 33% -21.4%
≤90d 81 -33.9% -40.2% 35% 33% -21.4%
all 81 -33.9% -40.2% 35% 33% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 33% -21.4%
10% -45.9% 32% -28.9%
15% -51.1% 30% -35.7%
20% -55.9% 22% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$30 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$500
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 53
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage10d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Scotland 25¢ 22¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $67 +$24 +37%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $50 +$52 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$52 +127%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $61 +$43 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 +$38 +62%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $41 +$67 +165%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $107 −$106 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $56 −$38 -68%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$25 +46%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $39 −$18 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $140 +$64 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$11 +54%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $111 +$59 +53%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $41 +$29 +72%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$46 -91%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $12 +$27 +228%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$2 -11%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $32 +$11 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $76 −$52 -68%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $81 −$78 -96%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $133 −$131 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $46 +$11 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $86 −$62 -72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $86 +$94 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$63 +123%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$43 +139%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $107 −$106 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland 25¢ $20 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $91 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $50 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $92 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $103 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $61 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $83 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $41 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 31h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 12¢ $10 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $108 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $41 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 36h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $81 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $36 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $16 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 46¢ $30 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.20 · official $17.20 (match) · 142 history records