Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f28…1cee crypto 69 markets active 6h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,254 (-31%) realized −$3,999 · open −$3,255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate13%11W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$13,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,570
7 days−$4,270
14 days−$4,455
30 days−$4,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$3,035
crypto 20% −$3,347
sports 10% −$964
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -85.3% -86.7% 7% 4% -84.8%
≤30d 29 -85.8% -87.1% 7% 3% -85.3%
≤90d 29 -85.8% -87.1% 7% 3% -85.3%
all 83 -67.2% -70.3% 13% 12% -82.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -70.3% 12% -82.6%
10% ← realistic here -73.1% 12% -84.3%
15% -75.7% 12% -85.8%
20% -78.1% 12% -87.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
49.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$114 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$13,183
Realized−$3,999
Unrealized−$3,255
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses11 / 72
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions6
Markets (closed)83 / 69
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$337
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $15,894 $12,856 −$3,038 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $120 $80 −$40 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $120 $35 −$85 (-71%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No 5¢ 9¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 1? Jun 19 $461 −$461 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 3? Jun 19 $149 −$147 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 2? Jun 19 $138 −$130 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 3? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 3? Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? Jun 19 $400 −$400 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 10PM ET Jun 19 $191 −$191 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 1? Jun 19 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18? Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 3? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 1? Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Jun 19 $146 +$15 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18? Jun 19 $162 −$162 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 1? Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 2? Jun 19 $197 −$190 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $96 +$120 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,516 −$435 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $131 −$86 -66%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $185 −$185 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 17? Feb 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 07 $30 +$10 +33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Feb 07 $98 −$80 -82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $80 −$25 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 07 $25 +$30 +120%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Feb 07 $49 +$51 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 8? Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 7? Feb 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 7? Feb 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7AM ET Feb 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ET Feb 06 $30 +$70 +233%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 6? Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 6? Feb 05 $136 −$134 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET Feb 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 7? Feb 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 6? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,400 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $27 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $36 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $30 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $1 10h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,237 10h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $402 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $300 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $375 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,182.88 · official $13,182.88 (match) · 3500 history records