Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f28…1ede sports 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$680 (+6%) realized +$681 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%100W / 86L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days−$215
14 days+$90
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$349
other 2% +$58
politics 2% +$336
world 1% −$140
finance 1% +$66
culture 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 37 +36.3% +23.3% 62% 62% +0.1%
≤90d 122 +7.8% -2.5% 56% 56% -6.9%
all 186 +3.4% -6.5% 54% 54% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 54% -4.0%
10% -15.4% 52% -13.2%
15% -23.6% 47% -21.6%
20% -31.1% 37% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$45 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$681
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses100 / 86
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)186 / 188
History coverage150d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$90 +873%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $35 +$68 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $35 +$15 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 +$20 +64%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $52 +$26 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $46 +$27 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $35 +$27 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $55 +$19 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 +$31 +103%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $100 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $30 +$25 +83%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $31 +$25 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 +$42 +83%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $42 +$61 +146%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $61 +$46 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 +$45 +89%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $30 +$32 +105%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $31 +$50 +165%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $101 +$84 +83%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $56 +$28 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 30 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $56 +$26 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $62 +$39 +63%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $41 +$73 +180%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B May 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $151 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $26 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $41 46h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $41 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $61 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $100 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $52 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 10¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $35 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $77 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $35 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $35 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $31 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $52 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $73 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $77 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $62 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $51 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $25 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $55 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $46 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $30 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $15 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.11 · official $74.11 (match) · 366 history records