Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f27…ce30 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-3%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$195
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -24.2% -31.4% 62% 31% -15.8%
≤30d 26 -24.2% -31.4% 62% 31% -15.8%
≤90d 26 -24.2% -31.4% 62% 31% -15.8%
all 26 -24.2% -31.4% 62% 31% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.4% 31% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.9% 8% -23.9%
15% -43.9% 0% -31.2%
20% -49.4% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$43 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $322 −$322 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $314 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $291 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $262 +$24 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $151 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $177 +$25 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $173 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $151 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $146 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $131 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $138 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9 $0 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $322 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $291 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $262 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $151 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $177 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $173 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $151 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $146 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $131 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $138 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $57 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $45 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $12 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $17 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records