Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f25…bee4 weather 226 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+1%) realized −$56 · open +$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%95W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$75
14 days−$13
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$58
sports 3% +$96
tech 2% −$135
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +16.5% +5.4% 44% 35% -6.0%
≤30d 195 -16.1% -24.1% 42% 31% -11.9%
≤90d 219 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 32% -11.2%
all 223 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 32% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 32% -11.3%
10% -29.7% 26% -19.8%
15% -36.5% 22% -27.5%
20% -42.8% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$164
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses95 / 128
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)223 / 226
History coverage102d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 88¢ $86 $244 +$158 (+182%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $21 $33 +$12 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 −$59 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 −$34 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$6 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $181 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$6 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$14 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$10 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $147 +$80 +55%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $60 −$58 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $72 −$71 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$26 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $160 +$51 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $212 −$24 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$9 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$25 +260%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$14 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $102 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $78 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $59 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $56 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$20 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$13 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$44 +1162%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $75 +$52 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $77 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$46 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$45 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $86 −$37 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$10 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 58m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.14 · official $277.14 (match) · 917 history records