Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f23…5547 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$189 (+23%) realized +$192 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$190
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$185
other 31% −$3
tech 4% +$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 25% +72.5%
≤90d 9 +13.2% +2.4% 89% 22% +22.7%
all 13 +9.5% -0.9% 92% 15% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 15% +19.3%
10% -10.4% 15% +7.9%
15% -19.0% 15% -2.5%
20% -27.0% 15% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$150 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$192
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage170d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $236 $233 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $167 +$190 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $144 +$145 +101%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $10 $0 +5%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? Feb 03 $19 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.45 · official $233.45 (match) · 26 history records