Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f20…12c3 weather 705 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (829 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43,033 (-55%) realized −$36,631 · open −$6,402
Gross ROI / mkt +286% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +197% what you keep after slip
Net edge+197%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%60W / 152L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day828.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$16,019
world 16% −$5,335
sports 12% −$1,640
weather 10% −$3,222
culture 3% −$98
tech 3% −$479
crypto 2% −$254
politics 2% −$51
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (829 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+248.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +285.6% +248.8% 28% 28% -98.5%
≤30d 212 +285.6% +248.8% 28% 28% -98.5%
≤90d 212 +285.6% +248.8% 28% 28% -98.5%
all 212 +285.6% +248.8% 28% 28% -98.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover828.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +248.8% 28% -98.5%
10% ← realistic here +215.5% 28% -98.7%
15% +185.0% 28% -98.8%
20% +157.0% 28% -98.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +286% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -59% → late +630% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$136 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$36,631
Unrealized−$6,402
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses60 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions440
Markets (closed)212 / 705
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$112
Trades / day828.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 440 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Logan McNaney win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year? Yes 44¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+1440%)
Will Matt DeLuca win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year? Yes 38¢ $1 $11 +$11 (+1230%)
Will Petr Yan be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? Yes 31¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+621%)
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $6 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $6 $3 −$3 (-44%)
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $110 $3 −$108 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1048%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 27? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1002%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 5? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1000%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 30? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +3439%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1298%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1002%
Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1200%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 +2816%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1000%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1902%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 +862%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 17 $0 $0 +3407%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 2? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1441%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1000%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +3260%
Will San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals matc Jun 17 $0 $0 +400%
Will Min Hyung-bae win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1700%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on May 2 Jun 17 $0 $0 +1002%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1001%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1396%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1002%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1001%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on May 2 Jun 17 $0 $0 +1001%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1002%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 17 $0 $0 +3429%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1000%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $0 $0 +1001%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +6187%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 17 $0 $0 +400%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 17 $0 $0 +6793%
Will "Ragtime" win Best Revival of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 +900%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 21? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +7423%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co Jun 17 $0 $0 +3524%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 +2001%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +2237%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, Jun 17 $0 +$18 +74359%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m Jun 17 $0 $0 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1110%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1001%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 17 $0 +$28 +438651%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k Jun 17 $0 $0 +501%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1004%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1000%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1004%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on May 2 Jun 17 $0 $0 +1004%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M Jun 17 $0 $0 +200%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $0 +$12 +46690%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 21? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1005%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +6617%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $20 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $21 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $26 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $29 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $25 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $16 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $14 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $16 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $11 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $16 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $16 36m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 39m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes $0 47m
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $10 1h
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.93 · official $190.86 · 3500 history records