Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f20…9930 crypto 31 markets active 6d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-18%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$21
other 32% −$13
politics 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -30.0% -36.7% 50% 33% -25.7%
≤90d 31 -18.2% -25.9% 65% 42% -27.0%
all 31 -18.2% -25.9% 65% 42% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 42% -27.0%
10% -33.0% 23% -34.0%
15% -39.5% 13% -40.4%
20% -45.4% 6% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $9 $0 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 08 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 08 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 18d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 19d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 20d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 27d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 29d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 34d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 38d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? SELL No 45¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 39d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records