Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f1f…57c1 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$751 (-9%) realized −$697 · open −$54
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$134
14 days+$134
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$1,001
other 41% +$217
politics 6% −$538
world 5% +$243
crypto 4% +$39
finance 1% +$8
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 48% -4.1%
≤30d 30 +20.4% +9.0% 47% 43% -12.0%
≤90d 61 -14.2% -22.4% 34% 31% -32.3%
all 69 -8.8% -17.5% 36% 33% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 33% -26.3%
10% -25.4% 28% -33.3%
15% -32.6% 28% -39.8%
20% -39.2% 28% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$77 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$2,971
Realized−$697
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 44
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions37
Markets (closed)69 / 108
History coverage181d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $345 $429 +$84 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $225 $204 −$21 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $120 $190 +$70 (+58%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $176 +$26 (+18%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $170 $166 −$4 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $180 $157 −$23 (-13%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 36¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 62¢ $80 $104 +$24 (+30%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 50¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $105 $96 −$9 (-8%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-8%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+55%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $40 $77 +$37 (+93%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 58¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $60 $73 +$13 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $58 −$17 (-23%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $202 +$120 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 +$161 +158%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 +$142 +140%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 +$71 +140%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$197 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$168 +165%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$91 +180%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $305 −$300 -98%
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $51 +$164 +321%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $51 +$306 +596%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $188 +$31 +17%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $62 −$31 -50%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $21 −$19 -92%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 10 $10 +$1 +13%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 10 $10 −$6 -64%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $10 −$6 -59%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $10 +$31 +311%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $10 $0 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $50 +$37 +75%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Apr 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $200 −$200 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $102 1h
Rodrigo Bentancur: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06 BUY 84¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $202 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $203 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 20h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 21h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $51 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 23h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 30h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $203 30h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 42h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye $10 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 42h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,971.19 · official $3,271.21 · 255 history records