Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9F 0x9f1c…13f4 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$218 (+4%) realized +$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$318
other 22% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 42% -6.7%
≤30d 38 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 42% -6.7%
≤90d 38 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 42% -6.7%
all 38 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 42% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 42% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 37% -15.7%
15% -28.1% 37% -23.8%
20% -35.2% 34% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$123 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage3d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $160 +$32 +20%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $96 +$52 +54%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $98 −$96 -98%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $142 −$140 -99%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $161 +$180 +112%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $184 +$378 +206%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $435 +$50 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $133 +$302 +226%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 26 $160 −$157 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 −$199 -98%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $440 −$141 -32%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $92 +$138 +150%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $203 +$96 +47%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $92 −$90 -97%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $96 −$95 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $196 +$145 +74%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $174 −$170 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $155 +$273 +176%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $53 −$51 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $137 −$135 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $121 −$82 -68%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $103 −$81 -78%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $199 −$195 -98%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $193 −$190 -98%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $98 +$93 +94%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $97 −$95 -98%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Grou Jun 24 $196 −$192 -98%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $99 +$94 +95%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $116 −$114 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $97 −$82 -84%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $164 −$160 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana Jun 24 $200 +$357 +179%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $95 +$163 +172%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $152 +$142 +93%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $158 +$395 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 100¢ $191 32m
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 83¢ $160 1h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $148 1h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64¢ $96 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals AND France leading at halftime? BUY 18¢ $96 2h
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato BUY Nicolas Zanellato 14¢ $98 2h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matias Soto 54¢ $142 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 99¢ $341 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 47¢ $71 3h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 36¢ $4 3h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 46¢ $86 3h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $562 5h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 32¢ $184 6h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY SELL DK 90¢ $485 7h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 80¢ $435 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $133 17h
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Bruno Fernandez 31¢ $160 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $203 20h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 34¢ $97 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $299 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $440 22h
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group SELL Barça eSports 100¢ $229 25h
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group BUY Barça eSports 39¢ $92 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 68¢ $299 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 45¢ $203 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 12¢ $92 27h
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Barça eSports 50¢ $96 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 30¢ $3 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym SELL Roman Safiullin 63¢ $192 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 31¢ $97 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $93.70 · 70 history records