Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f15…bdb3 sports 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,485 (-10%) realized −$15,507 · open +$1,022
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%128W / 146L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2,140est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3,936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,894
7 days−$16,561
14 days−$16,561
30 days−$16,561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$20,158
other 7% +$3,450
politics 1% −$423
world 1% +$1,174
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 43% -20.6%
≤30d 273 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 43% -20.6%
≤90d 273 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 43% -20.6%
all 274 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 43% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 43% -20.7%
10% -21.4% 37% -28.3%
15% -29.0% 33% -35.2%
20% -36.0% 29% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early +34% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$384 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$3,936
Realized−$15,507
Unrealized+$1,022
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses128 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$2,140
Open positions28
Markets (closed)274 / 303
History coverage696d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 36¢ 90¢ $430 $1,070 +$639 (+149%)
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Viktorija Golubic 39¢ 46¢ $540 $628 +$88 (+16%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Frances Tiafoe 37¢ 36¢ $636 $625 −$10 (-2%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 39¢ 41¢ $430 $452 +$22 (+5%)
Ribecai vs. Silva: Match O/U 21.5 Under 47¢ 100¢ $175 $372 +$197 (+113%)
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin Pietro Fellin 47¢ 100¢ $84 $178 +$94 (+112%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 60¢ 22¢ $360 $135 −$225 (-62%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers 33¢ 78¢ $49 $115 +$66 (+135%)
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: RS Berkane O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 50¢ $75 $81 +$7 (+9%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 62¢ 60¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Under 37¢ 36¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Panarin vs. Kirkin: Match O/U 21.5 Over 47¢ 50¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+6%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 45¢ 52¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+16%)
ITF Haskovo: Hibah Shaikh vs Lidia Encheva Lidia Encheva 46¢ 78¢ $14 $23 +$9 (+68%)
ITF Monastir: Danil Panarin vs Ergi Kirkin Danil Panarin 38¢ 74¢ $12 $22 +$11 (+93%)
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Quinn 44¢ 25¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Jacquet (+1.5) Jacquet 48¢ 50¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
ITF Monastir: Viktor Frydrych vs Ali Yazdani Ali Yazdani 49¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Julia Riera vs. Ipek Oz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 36¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+177%)
Carmen Andreea Herea vs. Sofia Rocchetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 33¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+202%)
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5) Baena 22¢ 0¢ $103 $2 −$102 (-98%)
Set Handicap: Mochizuki (-1.5) vs Bertola (+1.5) Mochizuki 31¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Duncan Chan 49¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Mochizuki vs. Bertola: Match O/U 22.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Lazarov (-1.5) vs Giraldi (+1.5) Giraldi 41¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Alexander Bernard vs Vuk Radjenovic Jun 18 $58 −$38 -66%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Filiberto Fumagalli vs Seydina Andre Jun 18 $153 +$180 +117%
Set 1 Winner: Golubic vs Sonmez Jun 18 $157 +$217 +138%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $1,318 −$1,150 -87%
Set Handicap: Wobker (-1.5) vs Topalova (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +22%
ITF Tokyo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Hunter Heck Jun 18 $139 −$36 -26%
Noskova vs. Parry: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $30 +$100 +335%
ITF Kayseri: Dev Javia vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar Jun 18 $1 +$1 +108%
Set 1 Winner: Saitoh vs Heck Jun 18 $74 +$80 +108%
Ortenzi vs. Yaneva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $128 +$271 +212%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $816 −$816 -100%
Neo Niedner vs. Matt Kuhar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Purcell (-1.5) vs Shiraishi (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Shintaro Imai vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $178 −$178 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $290 −$290 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $446 −$446 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $385 −$385 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $805 −$805 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $163 −$2 -1%
Set Handicap: Dietrich (-1.5) vs Wessels (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Javia (-1.5) vs Kumar (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Keshav Chopra vs. Daniel Phillips: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $127 −$127 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $12 +$27 +222%
Set Handicap: Panshina (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 18 $35 +$37 +104%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $262 +$160 +61%
Set Handicap: Feistel (-1.5) vs Amariei (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Vogt (-1.5) vs Guidi (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Honda (-1.5) vs Kumasaka (+1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Suarez (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +138%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Yuto Oki Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +75%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $3 +$4 +138%
Jenson Brooksby vs. Francisco Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Luque: Caira Delfina Vega Guidino vs Agustina Daniela Duarte Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
ITF Irvine: Nathan Cox vs Aadarsh Tripathi Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Corentin Moutet 5¢ $167 22m
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: RS Berkane O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $75 37m
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Quinn 44¢ $20 1h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $876 1h
ITF Haskovo: Hibah Shaikh vs Lidia Encheva BUY Lidia Encheva 46¢ $4 1h
Set 1 Winner: Golubic vs Sonmez BUY Golubic 42¢ $157 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $280 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $283 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 38¢ $70 2h
Ribecai vs. Silva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 47¢ $175 2h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 18¢ $816 2h
Set Handicap: Domingues (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5) BUY Domingues 35¢ $1 2h
Ekaterina Perelygina vs. Martina Colmegna: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 34¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 39¢ $483 3h
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Jacquet (+1.5) BUY Jacquet 48¢ $7 3h
Set Handicap: Wobker (-1.5) vs Topalova (+1.5) BUY Wobker 41¢ $1 3h
Set Handicap: Wobker (-1.5) vs Topalova (+1.5) BUY Wobker 41¢ $1 3h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Filiberto Fumagalli vs Seydina Andre BUY Filiberto Fumagalli 46¢ $153 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 48¢ $384 4h
Noskova vs. Parry: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 23¢ $30 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $161 4h
Ortenzi vs. Yaneva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 32¢ $128 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $163 4h
Carmen Andreea Herea vs. Sofia Rocchetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 33¢ $0 4h
Ofner vs. Baena: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 33¢ $17 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 33¢ $32 4h
ITF Haskovo: Hibah Shaikh vs Lidia Encheva BUY Lidia Encheva 46¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,935.95 · official $3,936.41 (match) · 1202 history records