Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f13…72d4 other 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 23% −$22
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$10
world 3% −$5
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage138d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $420 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $143 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $224 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $445 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $365 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $471 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $396 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 03 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 01 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $222 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $159 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 11h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 15h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 20h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 21h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 24h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 25h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 26h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 30h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 32h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $57 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 38h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 42h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 46h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.23 · official $56.23 (match) · 1425 history records