Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
9F 0x9f11…ddc4 culture 168 markets active 4d ago coverage 490d
RISKYcopy with care culture specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$51,879 (+20%) realized +$51,879 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate65%110W / 58L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,576per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$405
14 days−$405
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 77% +$31,626
other 16% +$6,654
sports 7% +$11,333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -40.1% -45.8% 33% 33% -41.6%
≤30d 3 -40.1% -45.8% 33% 33% -41.6%
≤90d 31 +27.1% +15.0% 65% 61% +45.5%
all 168 +57.5% +42.5% 65% 62% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.5% 62% +11.1%
10% +28.9% 52% +0.4%
15% +16.4% 42% -9.3%
20% +5.0% 30% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,475) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late +67% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$707 vs −$485 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51,879
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses110 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage490d
Avg bet$1,576
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $907 −$492 -54%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $187 −$124 -66%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 13 $461 +$211 +46%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 17 $737 −$461 -63%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 17 $1,954 +$192 +10%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m? May 12 $95 +$51 +54%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? May 12 $277 +$264 +95%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 12 $559 +$441 +79%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 12 $594 +$406 +68%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? May 04 $1,135 −$341 -30%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? May 04 $1,326 −$424 -32%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m? May 02 $251 +$28 +11%
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and Apr 14 $750 +$810 +108%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 14 $580 +$1,420 +245%
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Apr 14 $913 +$1,550 +170%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 14 $4,487 +$3,675 +82%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 07 $2,038 +$1,548 +76%
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m? Apr 07 $540 +$291 +54%
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be betwe Apr 07 $1,081 +$381 +35%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 06 $1,081 +$978 +90%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and Mar 22 $385 −$372 -97%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and Mar 22 $318 −$61 -19%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and Mar 22 $186 −$147 -79%
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m? Mar 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be betwe Mar 22 $739 −$398 -54%
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m? Mar 22 $279 +$868 +312%
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m? Mar 21 $63 +$13 +20%
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? Mar 21 $3,924 +$5,292 +135%
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? Mar 21 $7,878 −$3,989 -51%
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and Mar 21 $1,475 +$525 +36%
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and Mar 21 $2,350 +$650 +28%
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? Mar 15 $1,749 −$349 -20%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $2,995 −$60 -2%
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? Mar 03 $398 +$154 +39%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m? Mar 03 $3,173 −$17 -0%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? Mar 03 $5,417 −$909 -17%
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Mar 03 $708 +$403 +57%
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m? Mar 03 $115 +$999 +867%
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Mar 01 $586 −$419 -72%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? Mar 01 $101 +$14 +14%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3 Mar 01 $8,036 −$911 -11%
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m Feb 28 $489 −$489 -100%
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Feb 28 $649 −$649 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $10,264 −$3,183 -31%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater tha Feb 27 $189 −$122 -65%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5 Feb 27 $2,237 −$1,628 -73%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m Feb 23 $43 −$6 -13%
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m? Feb 10 $42 +$8 +18%
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th Feb 10 $918 +$722 +79%
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Feb 10 $1,008 +$992 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 18¢ $41 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 18¢ $12 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 18¢ $0 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 18¢ $85 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 18¢ $22 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $0 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $67 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 20¢ $15 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 18¢ $110 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 20¢ $63 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $34 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 13¢ $8 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL No 97¢ $500 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 86¢ $86 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2658 history records