Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f10…1eac other 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,589 (+1%) realized +$1,581 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,115per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$23
14 days−$30
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$98
other 38% −$171
sports 12% +$1,783
culture 2% −$6
world 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -7.0% -15.9% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 80 +0.1% -9.4% 9% 4% -8.5%
all 156 +0.4% -9.2% 19% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 10% -8.8%
10% -17.9% 10% -17.5%
15% -25.8% 10% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,532) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$7 · ×11.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$622
Realized+$1,581
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)156 / 159
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,115
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $296 $297 +$1 (+0%)
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $241 $241 −$0 (-0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 62¢ $77 $85 +$8 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $380 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $2,722 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $6,988 −$11 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $3,479 −$6 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $408 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $599 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,736 −$7 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,078 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $96 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,257 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,970 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,175 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,415 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4,686 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,679 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $50 +$45 +90%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 21 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $3,658 −$5 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,195 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,841 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 30 $2,058 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $1,485 +$1,178 +79%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $1,740 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $241 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $380 2h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $380 4h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $286 45h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $286 46h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $231 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $232 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $438 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $439 5d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $555 5d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $556 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $386 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $387 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $408 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $408 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $438 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $438 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $417 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $418 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $481 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $481 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $296 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $837 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $838 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $502 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $502 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $612 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $613 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $559 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $560 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $622.21 · official $622.21 (match) · 487 history records