Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

9F 0x9f0e…ba82 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,618 (+26%) realized +$4,025 · open −$407

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$862per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$49est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$5,423now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$218

7 days+$218

14 days+$218

30 days+$560

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-12.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+39.6%	+26.3%	100%	100%	+26.3%
≤30d	3	+29.0%	+16.7%	100%	67%	+26.7%
≤90d	12	-3.2%	-12.4%	58%	50%	+36.1%
all	12	-3.2%	-12.4%	58%	50%	+36.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.4%	50%	+36.1%
10%	-20.8%	50%	+23.1%
15%	-28.4%	50%	+11.2%
20%	-35.5%	33%	+0.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late -5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$745 vs −$243 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage

Net worth$5,423

Realized+$4,025

Unrealized−$407

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$49

Open positions4

Markets (closed)12 / 16

History coverage85d

Avg bet$862

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka	Naomi Osaka	88¢	82¢	$3,017	$2,840	−$178 (-6%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	85¢	84¢	$1,284	$1,276	−$8 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu	Emma Raducanu	71¢	56¢	$1,280	$1,018	−$262 (-20%)
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Coastal Kings Mangaluru	Coastal Kings Mangaluru	82¢	94¢	$250	$289	+$40 (+16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma	Jun 28	$550	+$218	+40%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage	Jun 10	$55	+$3	+5%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 08	$794	+$339	+43%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 25	$406	−$406	-100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	May 25	$519	−$519	-100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24?	May 24	$4,012	+$3,366	+84%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?	May 17	$732	+$761	+104%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-07?	May 08	$211	−$211	-100%
Predators vs. Kings	Apr 07	$306	+$240	+79%
Lightning vs. Sabres	Apr 07	$265	+$287	+108%
Devils vs. Canadiens	Apr 06	$48	−$48	-100%
Utah vs. Canucks	Apr 05	$28	−$28	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Coastal Kings Mangaluru	BUY Coastal Kings Mangaluru	82¢	$251	1h
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev	BUY Alexander Zverev	85¢	$1,289	1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu	BUY Emma Raducanu	71¢	$1,291	24h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka	BUY Naomi Osaka	88¢	$2,000	24h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka	BUY Naomi Osaka	87¢	$1,028	24h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma	BUY Ikram Aliskerov	71¢	$550	5d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage	SELL M80	50¢	$58	18d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage	BUY M80	48¢	$2	18d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage	BUY M80	48¢	$2	18d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage	BUY M80	48¢	$2	18d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage	BUY M80	47¢	$48	18d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	SELL Yes	71¢	$378	20d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	SELL Yes	71¢	$18	20d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	SELL Yes	71¢	$20	20d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	SELL Yes	71¢	$4	20d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	SELL Yes	33¢	$342	26d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	39¢	$794	30d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$253	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$42	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$1	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$1	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$2	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$1	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$4	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$52	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$69	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	45¢	$27	36d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	44¢	$4	39d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	44¢	$24	39d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?	BUY No	44¢	$24	39d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,423.15 · official $5,423.33 (match) · 74 history records