Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9F 0x9f0c…7ca5 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$329,535 (-63%) realized −$329,535 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%34W / 26L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,736per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3,682est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,377
7 days−$5,975
14 days−$62,200
30 days−$259,772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$271,995
politics 13% −$62,274
crypto 6% −$813
other 2% +$2,279
economics 1% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +39.4% +26.1% 71% 55% -13.5%
≤30d 54 +12.9% +2.1% 59% 46% -63.1%
≤90d 54 +12.9% +2.1% 59% 46% -63.1%
all 60 +5.4% -4.7% 57% 42% -67.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 42% -67.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 18% -70.5%
15% -22.1% 15% -73.3%
20% -29.8% 12% -75.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$10,023) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,316 vs −$14,517 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$329,535
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses34 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$3,682
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage593d
Avg bet$8,736
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $964 −$955 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $1,038 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $2,522 +$370 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $900 −$870 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $524 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $502 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $3,083 +$2,057 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $1,030 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $3,895 +$528 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $505 +$73 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $1,010 +$155 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $1,008 +$120 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $1,008 +$130 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $1,013 +$220 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $3,539 +$659 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $520 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $1,003 +$43 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $1,002 +$29 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $1,631 +$1,048 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $902 −$890 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $1,099 +$911 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $267 +$3 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $133 +$3,191 +2394%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $27,548 −$27,362 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $17,165 +$1,840 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $16,963 +$8,863 +52%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $13,457 +$3,471 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11,125 +$2,279 +20%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $7,184 +$3,921 +55%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $67 +$24 +36%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $6,441 +$552 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6,321 −$6,264 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $2,116 +$4,122 +195%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $1,578 −$1,564 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,770 +$608 +22%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $2,503 +$497 +20%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $1,840 +$660 +36%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $37,168 −$36,872 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $102 +$14 +13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $28,371 +$8,207 +29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $27,852 −$27,573 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $31,636 −$31,482 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $3,431 −$3,395 -99%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5 Jun 06 $13,000 −$12,961 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $2,438 −$2,395 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $53 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $86 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 773 history records