Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f08…1fa5 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate14%6W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
politics 21% $0
other 17% −$1
culture 10% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 7% -9.3%
all 43 -1.9% -11.2% 14% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage268d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $1 $0 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $10 +$2 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 06 $3 −$1 -53%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $2 $0 -1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $53 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 28 $26 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 15h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $47 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $47 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $43 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $11 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records